This Week’s Takeaways:
- According to one team, odds are that we will have a soft economic landing and not a recession, but stagflation risks are elevated.
- One ratings agency thinks the tariff revenue will offset the cost from the OBBA, meaning the deficit picture won’t improve or deteriorate from here.
- As U.S. equities grind higher, complacent investors are overlooking risks posed by a cooling labor market, mixed corporate earnings and mounting price pressures.
- As the US stock market gets more expensive, look to international stocks, small cap stocks, and high yield bonds for cheaper alternatives.
- Plus my latest book recommendation and Things to Do This Weekend in Boston.
Soft-Landing, or No Soft-Landing, That is the Question – Q2 Update by Wells Fargo
In the second quarter, the soft-landing probability remained unchanged at 40%. Meanwhile, the recession probability declined to 25% from 27%, and the stagflation probability remained constant at 28%.
Trump Tariffs Get Seal of Approval as S&P Affirms Credit Rating by Bloomberg
One ratings agency thinks the tariff revenue will offset the cost from the OBBA, meaning the deficit picture won’t improve or deteriorate from here.
Three Risks Hiding Behind U.S. Stocks’ Performance by Morgan Stanley
As U.S. equities grind higher, complacent investors are overlooking risks posed by a cooling labor market, mixed corporate earnings and mounting price pressures.
Where to Invest When Nothing Looks Cheap by Morningstar
As the US stock market gets more expensive, look to international stocks, small cap stocks, and high yield bonds for cheaper alternatives.
Navigating Inheritance with Confidence and Clarity by Heritage Financial
Inheritance windfalls can bring a complex mix of emotions, psychological challenges, and financial decisions. While the prospect of a sudden financial gain might seem like a dream, the reality often involves navigating grief, guilt, and new responsibilities. Understanding the psychological impact of inheritance can help beneficiaries make sound financial and emotional decisions—turning a moment of loss into an opportunity for purposeful planning.
Book Recommendation
American Rust: A Novel by Philipp Meyer
Evoking John Steinbeck’s novels of restless lives during the Great Depression, American Rust takes us into the contemporary American heartland at a moment of profound unrest and uncertainty about the future. It is a dark but lucid vision, a moving novel about the bleak realities that battle our desire for transcendence and the power of love and friendship to redeem us.
