This Week’s Takeaways:
- The generational wealth transfer ahead could be a source of revenue for governments eager to pay down debt, according to UBS.
- We’re not in a large cap tech bubble yet, according to Goldman Sachs, but keep an eye out for earnings disappointments as the biggest risk.
- We’re 8 months into a manufacturing contraction driven in part by tariff uncertainty.
- The rate of home purchase transactions being canceled has climbed this year due to rising inventory given buyers more options, sellers with low mortgage rates reluctant to sell at any price, economic uncertainty, and insurance and tax costs being higher than anticipated.
- Things to Do This Weekend in Boston and a new popular lecture series.
- Plus my latest book recommendation.
Governments are likely to pillage the $80 trillion ‘Great Wealth Transfer’ to fund their national debt, says UBS by Yahoo Finance
The arc during my career is that the Federal estate tax has impacted fewer Americans as exemption amounts have grown significantly over the years. UBS believes that governments will reverse course and use the generational wealth transfer we keep hearing about to pay back debts.
Why we are not in a bubble… yet by Goldman Sachs
While there are bubbly signs, such as high stock market valuations and a concentrated global stock market in a few names, we’re not in a bubble yet according to Goldman Sachs. Valuations aren’t at extreme levels, the market concentration is in profitable companies that are financially healthy. A risk to watch for is earnings disappointment.
Manufacturing Contraction Spreads as Slump Stretches into Eighth Month by Wells Fargo
While many have focused on the weaker jobs market, we’re 8 months into a manufacturing contraction driven in part by tariff uncertainty.
More Home Purchases Are Falling Through in an Uncertain Economy by The Wall Street Journal
The rate of home purchase transactions being canceled has climbed this year due to rising inventory given buyers more options, sellers with low mortgage rates reluctant to sell at any price, economic uncertainty, and insurance and tax costs being higher than anticipated.
How the OBBA Could Reshape Your Charitable Giving Strategy by Heritage Financial
If charitable giving is part of your legacy or tax strategy, recent changes in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) could reshape how your gifts are treated — potentially making 2025 a pivotal year for action. The OBBBA introduces several new rules that could impact how donors receive tax benefits for charitable gifts. For some, the new laws could be favorable; for others, they could result in a partial or total loss of deductions. While these rules don’t take effect until the 2026 tax year, some taxpayers will want to act before the end of 2025 to make the most of their generosity.
Book Recommendation
Longstreet: The Confederate General Who Defied the South by Elizabeth Varon
“For readers interested in the tragedy of America’s Civil War, the horrors of Reconstruction and their implications for our own divided time, Longstreet is an essential book.” — Mary Ann Gwinn ― Minneapolis Star-Tribune
Boston Corner
Boston’s hottest ticket? A bar seat for a lecture from a professor.
