This Week’s Takeaways:
- If we don’t have an AI bubble, it’ll be the first time a transformational technology didn’t lead to such excess. You can’t risk having your entire portfolio exposed to it, but you also can’t avoid owning it altogether. Take a moderate middle course.
- Recent rate cuts won’t make the housing market more affordable. That will only come if we build more housing.
- Less restrictive monetary policy and resilient economic growth appear poised to propel the commercial real estate market forward in 2026.
- Social Security claiming strategies for married couples are complex and best to optimize. One study found generally that delaying the filing for the higher earning spouse paired with early claiming with the lower earning spouse is optimal.
- Small business owners with strong cash-flow should consider defined benefit retirement plans. Cash balance plans are a good option that combine features of traditional pension plans and 401(k)’s.
- As the year winds down, markets remain supported by moderating inflation, accommodative monetary policy, and a favorable corporate fundamental backdrop. However, elevated valuations, concentration driven by the strength in AI related securities, and persistent macro uncertainty call for thoughtful diversification and disciplined risk management.
- Latest book recommendation.
- Boston Corner and Things to Do This Weekend in Boston
Is It a Bubble? by Howard Marks
Whether we’re in an AI bubble is a FAQ these days. Howard Marks’s latest memo provides an excellent way of looking at it: transformation technologies lead to excessive enthusiasm and investment (bubbles), AI is potentially the greatest transformational technology of all-time, if it doesn’t produce a bubble eventually that would be a first. You can’t risk having your entire portfolio exposed to it as it could end badly. You also can’t avoid it altogether and miss the returns driven by a great technological step forward.
Powell: ‘housing market faces some really significant challenges’ that a 25 bps rate cut won’t resolve by ResiClub
Jerome Powell recently addressed the housing market and acknowledged that recent rate cuts won’t make the housing market more affordable. We need to build more housing, something that central bankers cannotaddress.
The Outlook for Commercial Real Estate by Wells Fargo
The outlook for commercial real estate (CRE) is brightening. The Federal Reserve’s monetary easing cycle has generated stronger capital flows, increased transaction volumes and firmer property price appreciation. Supply and demand should also move toward better balance against a backdrop of buoyant demand and thin development pipeline.
The Social Security Claiming Decision for Married Couples by Journal of Financial Planning
For couples with the traditional situation of an older, higher-earning husband, optimal claim strategies always consist of a delay by the husband, usually to age 70, and an early claim by the wife, almost always at age 62. If the higher-earning husband is younger, however, optimal claim strategies are highly variable over the range of spousal age gaps and earnings ratios, often suggesting the reverse with the husband claiming early and the wife delaying. This result is particularly true for couples with near equal earnings.
Why Wealthy Individuals Trust This Retirement Plan for Financial Stability by Investopedia
Defined benefit plans are under-utilized by small business owners in my experience. Cash-balance plans combine features of a traditional pension and 401(k) and are an excellent way to build wealth.
A Pause for Perspective by Heritage Financial
Our team’s views on what the recent commotion in markets reveals about the underlying cycle: As the year winds down, markets remain supported by moderating inflation, accommodative monetary policy, and a favorable corporate fundamental backdrop. However, elevated valuations, concentration driven by the strength in AI related securities, and persistent macro uncertainty call for thoughtful diversification and disciplined risk management.
Book Recommendation
The Zorg: A Tale of Greed and Murder That Inspired the Abolition of Slavery by Siddharth Kara
In late October 1780, a slave ship set sail from the Netherlands, bound for Africa’s Windward and Gold Coasts, where it would take on its human cargo. The Zorg (a Dutch word meaning “care”) was one of thousands of such ships, but the harrowing events that ensued on its doomed journey were unique. By the time its journey ends, the Zorg would become the first undeniable argument against slavery.
Boston Corner
Mass. voters may decide rent control, tax cuts and election reforms on packed 2026 ballot
