My Latest: Why a Retirement Portfolio Checkup is Essential Now
This Week’s Takeaways:
- Close to half of Bitcoin tokens are worth less than what their holders paid for them, delaying price recovery as people sell into any strength to minimize their losses.
- Stocks go through long periods of weak returns, so make sure you’re not over-exposed to U.S. equities given that we’re almost thirteen years into a great run.
- Even though the Supreme Court curtailed Trump’s broad use of tariffs, U.S. trade policy has shifted permanently toward a more protectionist and less predictable framework that is unlikely to fully revert to the old system.
- Bain reports that private equity is enduring a prolonged downturn—worse in duration than the 2008 crisis—with weak distributions, stalled fundraising, and trillions in unsold assets weighing on the industry.
- The wage advantage of switching jobs has shrunk to near historic lows, signaling a cooling labor market compared with the pandemic-era hiring boom.
- Existing home prices are still increasing, but at a very slow pace compared with both past years and wage growth
- Latest Book Recommendation
- Things to Do This Weekend in Boston
Bitcoin Break-Even Trap Is Killing Every Rally as Buyers Strike by Bloomberg
45% off Bitcoin tokens are worth less than what their holders paid for them. This is converting every attempted recovery into a selling opportunity for burned holders desperate to get out at something closer to even.
Opinion: Why you shouldn’t fall in love with the S&P 500 by MarketWatch
U.S. stocks have averaged 6% real returns, but you have to understand that there are long stretches where you don’t make money. The real danger isn’t a short-term crash, but a period of long dismal returns. Those typically come after a period of stellar returns, so make sure your stock allocation is where it should be for your financial plan.
Trump Lost on Tariffs, but Trade Will Never Be the Same by The Wall Street Journal
Even though the U.S. Supreme Court struck down most of President Trump’s broad tariff program, American trade policy isn’t reverting to its pre-2025 approach; instead, it’s settling into a more structured but persistently protectionist framework. The ruling limits the executive’s authority under emergency powers, but the administration can still impose tariffs under other statutes, and many trading partners have already adapted to the newer, less liberal trade environment. As a result, trade relations and supply chains are unlikely to return to the more open, rules-based system that prevailed before Trump’s 2025 tariff initiatives.
See also: What The Supreme Court Ruling Means for Tariffs…and What It Doesn’t by Wells Fargo
Private Equity’s Dry Spell Worse Than 2008 Crisis, Bain Says by Bloomberg
According to a new Bain & Co. report, private equity returned fewer profits to investors for a fourth straight year while sitting on about $3.8 trillion in unsold assets, reflecting a prolonged downturn in performance. Distributions as a percentage of net asset value remained near the second-lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis, and fundraising has declined for four consecutive years, putting pressure on dealmaking and investor returns. Bain says the duration of this slump is now even worse than what the industry experienced during the 2008 crisis, highlighting significant challenges across the private equity landscape.
Pay premium for job hopping narrows to record low by Axios
New data show that the pay premium for switching jobs has narrowed to historic lows, with those who change employers now earning only modestly more than employees who stay put. This marks a significant shift from the pandemic-era peak, when job hoppers routinely saw double-digit wage increases compared with stayers. The trend suggests that the labor market’s advantage for job switching has diminished as overall pay growth has slowed.
Repeat existing home prices continue to increase at a snail’s pace, but still outstrip post-pandemic wage growth by The Bonddad Blog
In the latest data, repeat existing home price indexes such as the Case-Shiller and FHFA measures continue to rise, but only modestly, with year-over-year gains of about 1.3% and 1.7%, respectively — the slowest increases outside of past recessions. Meanwhile, prices for new homes have actually fallen, and existing home price growth remains very subdued compared with the sharp run-up seen earlier in the post-pandemic period.
Book Recommendation
The Pillars of the Earth: A Novel (Kingsbridge) by Ken Follett
A re-read from fifteen years ago, this is one of my favorite books. The Pillars of the Earth tells the story of Philip, prior of Kingsbridge, a devout and resourceful monk driven to build the greatest Gothic cathedral the world has known . . . of Tom, the mason who becomes his architect—a man divided in his soul . . . of the beautiful, elusive Lady Aliena, haunted by a secret shame . . . and of a struggle between good and evil that will turn church against state and brother against brother. A spellbinding epic tale of ambition, anarchy, and absolute power set against the sprawling medieval canvas of twelfth-century England, this is Ken Follett’s historical masterpiece.
