My latest: Liberation Day Thoughts
There’s lots to digest in what some are calling a massive change in the economic word order that’s caused a 20% stock market sell-off. I spent the last few days digging into it for readers and have four initial thoughts to share around whether higher tariffs are here to stay, what outcome investors are pricing in now, where there are trade imbalances to fix, and what’s happening with yields.
Amid turbulence, a new economic outlook by Vanguard
Using a tariff rate slightly below 20%, Vanguard sees GDP growth falling below 1%, inflation ending the year at nearly 4%, and unemployment rising to just above 5%. All combining to get us closer to stagflation and limiting the Fed’s ability to cut rates.
Earnings Outlook Is Next Possible Pain Point for Investors by Bloomberg
Analysts see earnings growth estimates for the first quarter and 2025 being down 40% and 25% respectively.
Trade Slowdown May Subtract From Trump Tariff Revenue by Bloomberg
The revenue benefit from tariffs is projected to be below the lower end of Secretary Bessent’s forecast of $300 billion to $600 billion.
Relative Winners in a Trade War by Charles Schwab Asset Management
Domestically focused stocks, European stocks, travel and leisure stocks outside the U.S., and stocks in Mexico, Canada, and Latin America could win on a relative basis.
What Now? An Investor’s To-Do List for Chaotic Markets by Morningstar
Don’t panic sell stocks, make sure your emergency fund is in good shape, and look for tax-loss selling and Roth conversion opportunities in a down market.
Book Recommendation
A Short History of the United States: From the Arrival of Native American Tribes to the Obama Presidency by Robert Remini
This accessible and lively volume contains the essential facts about the discovery, settlement, growth, and development of the American nation. Beginning with the earliest travelers to landing the Americas, A SHORT HISTORY OF THE UNITED STATES is a kind of highlight reel of U.S. history, including the migration of Native Americans, the founding of a republic under the Constitution, the emergence of the United States as a world power, the outbreak of terrorism here and abroad, all the way through the last years of George W. Bush’s presidency—the perfect read for those who are searching for an abbreviated version of our nation’s history, what shaped it, changed it, and what may be to come.
Boston Corner
50 things to do outside this spring across Massachusetts
