This Week’s Takeaways:
- CPI ticked up in June rising 2.7% from a year ago. This was expected by forecasters, and the .2% uptick in core goods prices hints at a tariff impact. A September rate cut is still expected given the gradual labor market softening.
- The government posted a $27 billion surplus in June helped by tariff revenue, but that doesn’t mean tariffs will balance the budget. June is one of Treasury’s biggest revenue months, and we’ve had surpluses in that month before.
- The SEC’s Office of Investor Education and Advocacy (OIEA) urges investors to be vigilant for investment scams related to natural disasters, including the recent Texas floods.
- Many investors today are assuming unusually high future stock market returns based on recent strong performance, overlooking the more modest, inflation-adjusted historical averages. This overconfidence can lead to undersaving for retirement and unrealistic financial expectations, increasing the risk of falling short of long-term goals.
- Plus my latest book recommendation and Things to Do This Weekend in Boston.
My latest: The Deficit
Jamie Dimon says it’s going to break the bond market, Nassim Taleb says our inability to deal with it is a source of fragility, and Ray Dalio is always worried!
Are deficits okay, at what level, how can we reduce them, and where do tariffs and Doge come into play?
June CPI: Warm but Not Hot Start to Summer by Wells Fargo
CPI ticked up in June rising 2.7% from a year ago. This was expected by forecasters, and the .2% uptick in core goods prices hints at a tariff impact. A September rate cut is still expected given the gradual labor market softening.
About That Tariff Budget Surplus by The Wall Street Journal
The government posted a $27 billion surplus in June helped by tariff revenue, but that doesn’t mean tariffs will help us balance the budget. June is one of Treasury’s biggest revenue months, and we’ve had surpluses in that month before. The deficit is still growing.
Investor Alert: Look Out For Possible Investment Scams Related to the Texas Floods from the SEC
The SEC’s Office of Investor Education and Advocacy (OIEA) urges investors to be vigilant for investment scams related to natural disasters, including the recent Texas floods
Do Individual Investors Need a Reality Check? by Morningstar
Many investors today are assuming unusually high future stock market returns based on recent strong performance, overlooking the more modest, inflation-adjusted historical averages. This overconfidence can lead to undersaving for retirement and unrealistic financial expectations, increasing the risk of falling short of long-term goals.
Summer Heatwave by Heritage Financial
Key Observations from our team’s latest:
- Big Bill, Big Deficit – According to the Congressional Budget Office, the “Big Beautiful Bill” will increase the deficit by more than $2 trillion over the next ten years1. Expanding fiscal spending in a growing economy raises questions about long-term debt sustainability and funding sensitivity.
- Markets Advance in June – Despite geopolitical tensions and mixed policy signals, stocks powered higher with technology and industrials leading performance while small caps lagged.
- International Leads the Year – Robust local performance and a weakening U.S. dollar has buoyed returns in markets abroad.
- When Uncertainty is High, Context is Grounding – Recent price moves may cause investors concern, but additional context may provide perspective on the weaker U.S. dollar and rising oil prices in June.
Book Recommendation
Martyr!: A Novel by Kaveh Akbar
A newly sober, orphaned son of Iranian immigrants, guided by the voices of artists, poets, and kings, embarks on a remarkable search for a family secret that leads him to a terminally ill painter living out her final days in the Brooklyn Museum. Electrifying, funny, and wholly original, Martyr! heralds the arrival of an essential new voice in contemporary fiction.
